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This year, the International Energy Company (IEA) is waiting for the global oil products to grow up to 1.6 million barrels (P/V), up to 104.5 million B/V per day. Against the backdrop of sanctions against Russian and Iranian oil industries, this forecast is reduced by 200 thousand barrels a day. However, they are recognized in the agency, making decisions on the potential consequences of control: and then they can fully express themselves. In the meantime, the global oil market continues to prove stability.
Oil demand by 2025 will increase by 1.1 million B/s compared to 2024, nearly 104 million B/s, Should From the February report of IEA. The previous report accepted the expansion of the demand 1.05 million B/s – so the rating has increased slightly (50 thousand B/s). At the same time, the IEA does not exclude its wrinkles in the coming months. Such dynamics are expected on the decline in the contribution of the PRC for the development of the world needs for oil. According to the calculations of the agency, its consumption in China has increased by an average growth of 150 thousand B/s in the last ten years in 600 thousand B/s according to the results of 2024.
In Obek, more Representation The February report, traditionally awaits the most significant increase in oil consumption in the world (there are oil exporters in this system, when IEA – mostly importers). According to Obek, oil demand by 2025 will increase 1.45 million B/s (up to 105.2 million B/s). This year’s main increase (1.34 million B/S) is expected to go to China and other Asian countries to the Middle East and South America states. According to OPEC predictions, consumption in OECD countries will increase only 110 thousand B/s.
World oil products, as expected in IEA, are 1.6 million B/s and 104.5 million B/V.
The January forecast is reduced by 200 thousand B/s. The reduction is explained by the US introduced by the US against Russian and Iranian oil industries. Note that most restrictions were used in January (See “Gamerson” from January 11), A few of them are in effect only in February.
In the first month of the year, the dynamics of oil exports are diversity: products from Iran, according to IIA, were reduced from 100 thousand B/s from the Russian Federation – the same amount grew. At the same time, Russian oil was still sold for more than $ 60 per ceiling, established by EU countries, G7 and Australia. According to the Ministry of Economic to the Russian Federation, the average price of Urals oil in January is for barrel. 67.7.
Russian exports of oil and oil products in January are estimated that 7.4 million B/S-this is less than 600 thousand B/s than the same month of 2024.
At the beginning of the year, revenue from the goods of the Russian Federation increased due to high prices (in the expectations of the consequences of the consequences of sanctions), which increased by $ 0.9 billion compared to the December indicator, which was $ 15.8 billion.
It is very quick to make decisions on the long -term impact of the economic barriers on the oil market, and IEA researchers believe that repeatedly proves amazing stability and adaptation. ” In the February report, the agency reduced the rating of Russian oil revenue by 2024: they are now considered $ 189 billion, the previous estimate of $ 192 billion ($ 2023- 188.2 billion). The IEA notes that the supply of oil and oil from the Russian Federation last year fell to $ 3.5 million from India and China: Note, from the data of Chinese customs, Russia was an oil exporter in the BRC: In the average assembly, its products in 2024 were estimated at 2.19 million B/s, 2.14 million B/V 2023, at the cost of a year – 58.5 billion. After the dollar.2 60.2 billion.
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