India’s solar chances are bright

Over the past three years, the price of solar panels in the United States has been fluctuating between historic high and lower as China relies on China. Now, when the Donald Trump administration imposes a 10% threatened fee for Chinese imports, can the US auction for free from the Chinese solar system prove a boon to India and Pakistan?

The price of solar installations can only be understood by the Chinese and American trade relationship. The United States was a leader in producing solar panels until China was composed. 57% anti -dumping fee In 2013 against the American Polysiligan. Over the next decade, the US solar market has rely on Chinese expansion in the production of polysilicon to stimulate its high -speed growth. China was unable to continue when the US demanded the sun during the infection.

The shortage of raw materials came in the backdrop of an emergency need to move away from fossil fuels. Solar demand has risen and rising by 50% in two years, according to the US -based energy consulting company Retting’s solar analyst Andris Wanderwar.

Wanderwar said Saban message It takes two years to create a polyslicon factory and “bring more production capacity online.”

The conditions that developed the policylicone deficiency are not repeatedly possible, he said in 2023. “The need is now completed, but there are still large numbers of projects, and they are too late to drop. Once the demand for polysiligan increases by 5%, another (Chinese) factory will be ready to meet it. ”

A year later, the Wanderwar’s prediction appears exactly. Chinese polycyclicon scales set a record, which provoked US allegations – China’s one -time accusation. Meanwhile, solar growth in India and Pakistan is on the rise.

Consensus

The solar energy market is confused amid the urgent need to switch from fossil fuels. UN for climate change The Conference of the structure warns that the global temperature is Should not be violated 1.5 degrees Celsius in the 1990s to avoid severe effects such as water shortage and extreme weather. To stay under the range of 2 degrees Celsius, the United States must reach zero emission before 2050. However, the current emission trends have to take the world on the path of more than two degrees of Celsius in the middle of the century.

Since 2017 Climate agreement In Paris, there is American emission Was steadyWith increasing energy use from renewable, with compensating gain. Renewable shows the increasing of 20% by 2020 35% by 2030 – Further decreases than the UN’s recommended 50% of emission reduction.

The solar energy has shown high growth in renewable, expanding an average of 20% annually in the last five years. Group costs will decline between 2010 and 2019 and increase access to consumers. The US government’s tax debt for solar installations increased from 26% tax from 26% in 2020 to 30% in 2022.

Other renewable options have grown in a slow rate. The air grew on average 10.50% In the last five years, bio -nerji and hydropoor have not grown Significantly.

Solar Energy Industries Association, a US -based business organization, Not forecasting Solar installations decrease over the next decade. In fact. .

However, the solar industry later met with a shortage Three -fold Prices for the next two years. Two main factors contributed to this shortage. First, one of China’s largest factories for the polysiligan was shut down for unexpectedly, due to some Gov -19. Second, the US passed Uighur Force Labor Prevention Act.

Despite the strengthened distribution chain, the US may experience a raised price due to trade restrictions. “The shortage does not come to China or any country that is open to Chinese imports, but now you see the problem,” Wanderwar said.

Due to concerns about the compulsory labor, the US Customs and Border Enforcement requires all the products produced in China’s China province, including most policylicone used in solar panels. Human rights groups are accusing the Chinese government against humanity against Humanity against Ugur, the most important Muslim minority of China.

Emergency order

Most solar panels in the United States are imported from Southeast Asia – often the components made in China – need long reviews on the US border. In 2023, during the policylicone deficiency, American customs were confiscated 1,400 Solar Shipment Hundreds of millions worth.

The Department of Commerce found an investigation Solar companies used imports From Southeast Asia to avoid fees on Chinese panels. Since June 2024, these countries have been facing New charges.

Another reason for the end of the US Solar Polysilicon in 2023 is because President Biden signed Emergency order In an attempt to address the energy shortage created by the economic barriers on Russian oil, the end of the sanctions on the Chinese solar panel components. However, the House Ways and Instructions Committee, which is controlled by the Republican Party, promised to change the order of the Uighur Human Rights Program.

The price of polysiligan depends on which political party is often controlling the US government. In the end, Wanderwar hopes that the inflation reduction law will help reduce the overall prices, and that the US will lead to self -sufficiency in making solar panels.

“With all the subsidies that the United States receives, it can create its own polysiligan,” he said Saban message.

But if Americans are ready to pay higher prices for domestic solar panels-this is the most energy-intensive and time-consuming process. Like labor, energy here is more expensive. “In the end, the price of a gram of production of polysiligan in the United States will be doubled in China,” Wanderwar said.

This figure turned accurate in December 2024, the Biden administration announced a Increase 50% of its fee against the Chinese in an attempt to protect the US industry.

When the demand for solar increases exponentially, another source of price hike may be a labor shortage. Stephen Labaint, co -owner of Powerdash, a renewable energy output watchdog, is one of his dangerous decisions.

“To monitor or solve problems in the solar panel’s energy release, a worker must compromise with an advanced and older software. No degree has taught us a combination of skills,” he said. Saban message.

As a result, his company must provide detailed training to each new employee. “If we hire someone who has found that they do not match the job, it is a cost that often cannot be taken,” the Laboint said.

Considering all these factors, as an industry, solar power is facing growing pain to meet the expectations that are placed on it.

Sun growth

The US and China are affected by excessive distribution of solar panels and it has triggered growth Energy capacity In India and Pakistan. Until China solved its production problems in 2022, India’s solar power generation grew in AAA Linear rate. In the supply pudding, the growth has returned High -speed. This year, 71% The energy capacity added to India is renewable, thanks to the low prices of polysiligan.

Pakistan is one of the most dramatically affected countries. In 2022, Pakistan only accepted solar power Average rate worldwide. By 2024, Pakistan became Sixth The solar market in the world is often triggered by unexpected excessive distribution of panels.

The future of renewable energy is particularly weak in both India and Pakistan. For the next three years they will be in a position to create their energy skills. This means that the energy facilities they have chosen to run their phase will be in use for more than a decade. As a result, the price of polysiligan in the next three years will deeply affect countries’s carbon emission in the next decade.

It is a Saban message Integrated feature.