Every year, astronomers around the world will find hundreds of asteroids near Earth; However, Calculate your orbit accurately And predicting potential impacts is not a simple task.
To determine the path of these celestial bodies, scientists use a mixture Telescope observations, numerical methods and mathematical models Adjust the data as new measurements are collected.
How is the orbit of an asteroid?
Dr. Rene Odeka Minagata, a member of the Radiostronamy and Astronomy Institute, describes the forecast of a track of a small track Start with your invention And first observations.
The expert explains that “the number of observations that take many observations to adjust the model of the most appropriate for collected data is used.
The initial path of a asteroid SAnd determine based on its position in the sky And its transparent movement over time. First Astronomers work with limited dataThis creates a significant edge of the error. However, because more measurements are collected at different nights, Calculations can be refined And reduce the uncertainty of its future movement.
Factors that affect the path of a asteroid
One of the biggest challenges when calculating the orbit of a asteroid It is the influence of gravity Of other celestial bodies.
“Every time a as a
In addition, such factors Solar radiation pressure Oh Case emission on active asteroids They can change the path of these materials. So, astronomers They need to make standard simulations Compare your samples with real -time observation data.
The importance of continuous observations
Since it was found in December 2024, The asteroid 2024 YR4 is subject to intense surveillance. Thanks for over 340 observations made of telescopes from all over the world, it was able to assess its possibility Attitude to Earth in December 2032. However, the inclusion of new data is constantly varying the probability of impact.
“This small asteroid has an extra difficulty: this is going away from the earth, which makes it more difficult,” says Odeka Minagata.
In the coming months, its monitoring It depends on space telescope like James WebbIt can provide key information about its firm size and the path.
Fixed Update Calculations
It is necessary to determine that the continuous adjustment of a asteroid’s orbit refers to a true risk to the earth.
“We have more observations. Our rating is very accurate. In general, the impact of the impact is reduced because we are enriching calculations and getting the best prediction of his career life,” the expert says.
Thanks to the international cooperation of the astronomers, the humanities can more accurately predict the movements of the asteroids near the Earth, and, if necessary, can take sedation to prevent potential impacts.
