Last year, Madison Keys missed the Australian Open with a shoulder injury. Finally, she played barely half of the season, missing more time after she tore the paralysis in Wimbledon. She still won enough matches to head to Melbourne as 19. Seed at this year’s first major.
Is better than that.
In one sense, I just mention the obvious: On Saturday she defeated Jessica Pegul for the title in Adelaide and moved to 14th place on the WTA computer. In addition, anyone who can last in the top 20, despite the fact that there are so many events, probably better than their evaluation. ELO agrees, evaluating keys ninth among womenmodest 33 points for the fifth place Elena Rybakin.
Even more attentive is the way the American won the Adelaide championship. It served as well as the years, suggesting that the shoulder is completely healed. She played extremely aggressive, a style that she never avoided, but sometimes she tries to maintain. In the end, they did all this in publishing excellent return numbers. The 29-year-old is double the semi-final at the Australian Open, and if it keeps it, it could easily do three.
The service is back
When everything clicks, no one on the tour – with a possible exception to Rybakina or Aryna Sabalenka – Markes serves so easily. The keys not only slam the apartment that serve on the tee: adds a little side spill, so its perfect vanies look as if they sail slightly wide until the network exceeds. Then it employs the same rotation to send wide portions even wider. When he is missing, he can go back to some of the hardest seconds in the female game.
Whether the shoulder was still uncertain or the stunning threatened her movement, the American tried to maximize it only last year the US Open. In her third round of the third round for Elise Mertens, its average speed of the first region was less than 99 miles per hour. Almost 100 matches Grand Slam For which I have speed data, it was only the second time – the next was Roland Garros in 2017 – that it slowly hit the first.
Today in her opener Melbourne against Ann Li was her average first service 109 miles per hour. This is the fastest thing I have recorded for her since 2015.
Last week in Adelaide, I don’t have the operator speeds for Keys’s Victories, but the results indicate numbers well into three -digit digits. In the final against Pegula, she hit 10 aces, which is good for 13% of her points. Liudmile Samson’s face in Semiska struck 12 aces – 17% of serving points. In a short quarterfinal against Daria Kasatkina, she met 11 aces, 21% of serving points. Only the fourth time in the 1920s Keys reached 20% of the mark and the only time in her career, which she managed against the highest rivals.
For the first time since 2019, Adelaide has indicated that US Aced at least 10% of its service points in three consecutive matches. Since 2016 she has not done so at one event.
Ace is great in themselves, but the status is particularly useful to represent the effect of service on even more points. Yes, the keys have won 13% of their points of maid against Peguula with aces but 41% He didn’t return. This is another sign of recovery: in tens of Mapping project-Logged matches, this is the first time in this category 40% in this category since the Australian Open in 2022-the last semifinals fell down.
Last year, Americans have alleviated the difficulty of the shoulder by starting more conservatively. She was not so fatal with her first service, but she landed more of them. Among the 50 best WTA, only Elina Avanessyan and Yulia Putintseva missed less than the first. If Adelaide is a hint, it is back to business as usual, risks several other risks and causes absolute devastation of the first shot:
Span SPW 1stIn 1st W% 2nd W% Adelaide 65.4% 63.4% 71.6% 54.8% 2024 60.6% 68.2% 66.7% 47.4%
It is not a comparison of apples-apps because the 2024 line contains many matches with the clay court, including two against the IgA Swiata. However, the difference is sufficient to tell the story. 60.6% of the serving points were good for 8. Best on tour last year. On the other hand, 65.4%is almost two percentage points better than someone Published in hard courts. The winning rate on the first region of 71.6% would put it in the first five and no one approached the victory of 54.8% of their second portions.
I don’t want to put too much emphasis on one tournament – everyone looks good if you turn the microscope on a great week. But it is worth offering one more adjustments in favor of Keys. Has published these numbers against extraordinarily strong opposition. Her five victims in Adelaide were placed on the 16th, 17th, 9th, 26th and 7th place. This is a harder schedule that every player faces throughout the season. If Madison has reached the semifinals in Melbourne, it will be an easier way to see the trophies in Adelaide.
It is swinging freely
Keys has improved its return game over the years and has been more comfortable to play long gatherings. One of the most surprising numbers in her statistical letter is that it has a better winning percentage in Hlinka than in hard courts.
Still, she is an aggressor in the heart. Her administration is not the only shot that can hit as hard as anyone, nor is it the only weapon that can land on the line. In general, the more aggressive it is, the better its results. Shoulder injuries and paralysis forced her to play more conservatively. That’s the end now.
In less than an hour on the pitch with Kasatkina crushed one number., ‘ 38 Winners. On Saturday, Pegula is facing, she recorded 40 years. I have winners and unforced mistakes for about about about a quarter She was the first time when she broke 40 winners since her career matches and the Adelaide final. It wasn’t even uncontrolled. The opposite side of the book was an impressive 27 unforced errors, which is good for the ratio of 1.5. Even in her loss of Auckland against Clare Tauson in the previous week, she recorded 38 winners against 30 unforced, which is the ratio that would win Most WTA matches.
The best indicators of American renewed attack are different metrics for aggression. According to Rally aggression– the rate of how often a player ends with points for good or sick after the return of the service –Evaluated +147. (The average is 0 and almost all players fall between -100 and 100.) The score of the return of aggression -the idea, but strictly for the return on serving -ask for +137. Her career averages are around +100, but in 2024 it fell below +60 in both.
The last time the keys reached +137 or above with both measures, Cincinnati quarterfinals were in 2019, defeating Venus Williams on his way to the title.
We are still looking for things that Keys did for the first time since 2019. Almost everyone will come back in Cincinnati. . She found this form again.
Keys to the match
One difference between 2019 Cincinnati and 2025 Adelaide: The American returned much better last week. She gained 48.1% of the return points in Adelaide compared to 43.7% in Cinc.
Players are rare that it is rare when you arrive on the tour. The rest of the tour learns how to defeat you, the opposition is stronger and the age will slow you down. Nevertheless, the keys, at the end of the 20 years, improved:
While the 2025 data point is unlikely to be held above 47%, the results 2023 and 2024 demonstrate this trend. Last year, Keysova was 44% of the mark better than half of the 50 best, a strong performance for a player with the first service. Return points are an extreme case of small margins of tennis. According to the top 50, 43% of the return points are weak, 44% are appropriate and 45% are strong.
47% – Americans success rate in Auckland and Adelaide – is out of the elite. Only two players – Coco Gauff and Marketa Vondrousova – were better in hard courts last year than in hard courts.
It will take some time to know whether Adelaide was a remote or harmony of the resurrected career. Keys’ season 2025 will certainly fall somewhere in the middle, at least if it stays healthy. Certainly there are reasons for optimism. For the most part, she did it all before, served and attacked the journey to the top ten in 2016 and in the last two years she was better returning. If these two halves meet, we will not see and (19) Next to her name again for a long time.
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