Here is the state that rolls us: In yesterday’s fourth round on The Australian Open won Elina Svitolina 67% points when she hit a back. The tour diameter is a neutral AS-it-get 50%. Svitolina with her ingenuity from this wing is on average 51%.
It’s even better. Usually, if the rally statistics cost much above 50%, it’s because it is packed with winners. But against Veronika Kudermetová yesterday, Svitolin hit only one ground background. It caused two more forced mistakes, but committed five of her own unforced mistakes. All of this means that the points of the backpack came thanks to a point construction that did not bend behind the fences. (Incorrect Kudermet also helped.)
Bandhand Masterclass, at the heels of another strong starting performance against Jasmine Paolini in the third round, reminds the peak of Svitolina. Ukrainian is now 30 years old, veteran of countless injuries, pregnancy and permanent distraction of her country in war. Mine ELO rating Suggest that she is at best seven years ago when she upset Simon Halep for the crown of Rome in 2018. This is EON at tennis time: since 2021 she has not stayed in the top ten.
Still, there is, in the final of Melbourne Final Eight. It is her twelfth main quarterfinal, her fourth since she became a mother. Maybe she did it a year ago. After an exhausting finalist in Auckland, which opened the campaign in 2024, Svitolina raced three laps in Australia and then went to Linda Noskova in the fourth round. This year she skipped warm -ups and kept her best tennis on a larger scene. With Madison Keys through the net tomorrow has a chance to go even further.
Svitolina 2.0 is likely to never reach the level she showed in mid -2010. It is slower and must manage its schedule carefully. But like all players with successful second chapters, she changed their game in response to its limitations. It is and will always be a counter -proposal that is based on one of the most durable backhand games. New Elina, however, has weapons with the first strikes that her younger I could only dream of.
Hitting
While no one should be mistaken for Aryna Sabalenka on a service line, 30-year-old causes more damage than before.
Yesterday against Kudermet, Svitolina on average almost on average 103 miles per hour (165 km / h) in their first submissions. I have more than 70 speeds for her career straw matchesAnd it hit this level only in five of them, mostly in Wimbledon. When she reached the quarters at 2021, an average of less than 100 miles per hour in all five matches.
It is a small improvement, but associated with increased accuracy in the first service is paid. In the sample Mapping project-Logged matches, she transferred more plus -ne to her first service in 2024 like her career rates. Even her improved 2024 meant pale compared to what she did in Melbourne:
Span Unret% <=3 W% Career 27.2% 38.6% 2024 27.5% 41.9% R3 vs Paolini 36.1% 60.6% R4 vs Kudermetova 39.4% 63.9%
The second column showing the percentage of the first points in which Svitolina scored a point with her service or a second shot is where players earn their money. No matter how good your ground game, it’s hard to think of a deficit in the category of cheap points. During 2024, Ukrainian was in both statistics in the middle of the package. The form she has shown in the last few days is something completely different.
The numbers are particularly impressive to the defender like Paolini. Although the Italian is probably not as strong as it indicates its rating #4 It is definitely an elite vomer. Last year, she gave nearly three quarters of the first shares in the game. Svitolina allowed her only 64%. And as we can see with the Serve or Second-shot status, Paolini couldn’t do much when she got the ball back. On average, the Italian wins more than half of the first shot points in which it will land. She won only on Friday 6 out of 23.
There is only one three -round booking. Svitolina gained these results by handing a chance and made less than half of its first portions. It was extreme day: 48% of the first portions, 83% of the won points in the first place and 42% of the second shot points won. If it explicitly focused on the typical 60% of the first portions, it would not disclose the same winning rates. But with the first -class returnee in the network, the right tactic of Svitolina has been shown.
The half step
So far we have talked about what Ukrainian can control. Equally important is what cannot: the aging process and its impact on the rest of his game.
Here is an overview of how its current level is compared with its peak 2017-20, a measured percentage of the winnings in the first place and the second register, along with the return points: Win Points:
Span 1st W% 2nd W% RPW% 2017-20 66.6% 47.2% 46.1% 2023-25 65.5% 46.8% 45.2%
Approximately one-percent point drops through the board. This makes sense to explain the difference between the player who has placed around 5 and one, which should float around #20. (Elo is more optimistic than the official evaluation of Elina #27.)
Now try the same statistics, only hard courts:
Span 1st W% 2nd W% RPW% 2017-20 67.5% 47.3% 46.1% 2023-25 68.9% 47.9% 43.6%
At its top, Svitolina was basically the same player on all surfaces. He is now doing sports another type of surface profile. The aggression of services is paid while it seems to be trying to return the damage in faster courts.
Thirty -year -old has always been aimed at talking a lot. According to MCP data she stated 77.5% of portions in a game, a number that dropped to 76.4% Last year’s season. Both signs are near the top of the table. Players who adopt such defense posture do not usually earn a particularly high rate of these points and Svitolina is no exception: its 51.5% win when they put a return to the game is about an average tour. It is a low risk strategy, a relatively low reward.
The results may be bleak against strong servers. Last summer, less than 65% of the portions against the Sabrant in Cincinnati received it and even held it at 67% in Wimbledon. In Adelaide three years ago, Madison Keys was so strong from the line that Svitolina put only half of the yields into the game. On its top it was Rare To make Ukrainian fall below 70%.
Her hard results are then very dependent on the match. Relative Puncless Paolini was lucky in this respect. Once there is a service and plus-aon past, Svitolina can go to anyone with anyone. She won 60% of points that lasted four or more strokes against Italian. As we saw, it was even easier. As soon as Elina got a rocket to the backhand, the Russian basically surrendered.
It’s a crazy, crazy quarterfinal
The next challenge of Svitolina is completely different. In Five career meetingsShe has two victories against Keys, coming to the Australian Open and the US open in 2019. Even though she was younger, she could not neutralize the American maid. In one match she gained about 36.5% of the return points, never in one match 43.3%.
The margins for Ukrainian tomorrow will be lean. While Svitolina strengthened her service, she won more points plus-one than the immature. It works against opponents like Paolini but The keys are swinging in everythingIncluding hard portions. In Final Adelaide Against Jessica Pegula-Široko similar to a player to Svitolina -i, they deserved the points of his opponent on average 3.1 strokes. This is a lot of short “rally” and it means less chances that Elina put off the weak second ball.
Svitolina will be even more powerless after returning. As we have seen, Keys is responsible for one of the worst performances of his career. In that year 2022, 30-year-old Adelaide won 30-year-old 22% of return points. The longer the rally is, the better for Svitolin. But the keys will try to prevent commentators in using the word “rally”. In a match with the title of Adelaide, US services lasted only 2.6 strokes on average.
Ukrainian does not have to have a lot of control over the action, but that does not mean that it has no chance. My prediction She leaves her enough space and gives her a 42.5% shot to reach Final Four. Keys’ aggression often happens for a mislead and unpleasant injuries can prevent any player. If the American cannot serve 100%, or if it retreats back to a more passive tactic, he is undertaken. In longer points, Svitolina is the most popular. Will have to hope to get a chance to play.
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