2023-24 NBA MVP Odds and Top Over/Under Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic

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2023-24 NBA MVP Odds and Top Over-Under Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic

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Unveiling Nikola Jokic: The Maverick Superstar of Sports, Entering 2023-24 Season as NBA Champion and Finals MVP

As the curtain rises on the 2023-24 NBA season, Nikola Jokic, a name synonymous with both dominance and finesse, steps into the limelight once again. Having claimed the coveted title of MVP for two consecutive seasons, he now adds the crown of reigning Finals MVP to his illustrious resume. The question on everyone’s mind: where does he stand in the realm of accolades and statistical forecasts? Today, we delve into the realm of the Joker’s MVP prospects and explore his season-long player projections on SuperDraft.

Across the globe, basketball aficionados recognize what true hoop connoisseurs have known for years – Nikola Jokic is an unparalleled force in the NBA, possessing an unprecedented blend of skills. No seven-footer has ever exhibited such a seamless and efficient mastery of scoring, rebounding, and playmaking. He’s akin to a gaming cheat code.

In addition to his on-court wizardry, Jokic brings an element of excitement to the betting arena, a fact well-acknowledged by enthusiasts last season. “Nikola Jokic triple-double” emerged as a wildly popular playoff proposition, nearly rivaling the fervor for Christian McCaffrey’s ‘anytime touchdown’ bets in the NFL. Our recommendation to back Jokic for Finals MVP proved to be a shrewd move, yielding not only value but also a higher payout compared to the Nuggets’ odds for an overall victory. With that success in mind, we approach this season with confidence, anticipating equally fruitful outcomes for our MVP wagers and Jokic’s season-long prop bets.

Join us as we navigate the futures market, poised for an exhilarating ride. In the sections below, we dissect Nikola Jokic’s MVP odds and scrutinize his top three SuperDraft player props – average points, rebounds, and assists per game. We’ll also outline our inclinations for each bet, providing insights for fellow enthusiasts.

PlayerOdds
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets+450
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks+550
Luka Doncic, Mavericks+600
Jayson Tatum, Celtics+700
Joel Embiid, 76ers+800
Kevin Durant, Suns+1400
Stephen Curry, Warriors+1400
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder+1800
Devin Booker, Suns+2000
Damian Lillard, Bucks+3000
While we hold immense respect for Jokic’s remarkable skills, we’re hesitant to designate him as the frontrunner for the MVP title. Last season, voters exhibited signs of fatigue towards his candidacy for a third consecutive win. Despite coming incredibly close to averaging a triple-double as a 7-foot center and boasting impressive shooting percentages of 63/38/82, he narrowly lost the MVP race to Joel Embiid, who secured the scoring title and demonstrated superior defensive prowess.

Jokic’s attitude towards the MVP accolade has been rather nonchalant, a sentiment he candidly expressed last season. His demeanor following the Nuggets’ championship victory suggested a certain detachment from personal accolades. Furthermore, clinching a third MVP title and ascending to the echelons of NBA history would necessitate a series of favorable circumstances. Given the abundance of superstars and the current competitive balance in the league, we find it difficult to recommend wagering on the favorite with odds lower than +500. Our admiration for Joker is unwavering — it’s the odds in advance of an 82-game season that give us pause.

Below 25.6 Average Points per Game

While SuperDraft’s projection appears quite accurate, we’re inclined to go UNDER. In the previous 2022-23 season, Jokic averaged 24.5 points per game, falling just 1.1 points short of this mark. Notably, the Nuggets clinched the championship with this balanced approach. With Jamal Murray’s significant improvement and heightened confidence, it’s unlikely his usage will decrease. Similarly, we don’t anticipate Michael Porter Jr. taking fewer shots, nor do we expect Aaron Gordon or Christian Braun to take a backseat in offensive contributions. The team’s success lies in a collective effort, relying on balanced scoring and strong team play at both ends of the court.

It’s worth noting that Jokic places little emphasis on the MVP trophy, having already secured two. He likely values a second championship above all else. Denver’s strategy has been to utilize Jokic as a scorer when necessary, while also leveraging his playmaking and facilitating abilities when defenses focus on him. Anticipating increased defensive attention this season, stemming from the league’s concerted efforts to thwart the reigning champions, we predict a potential dip in points per game. Hence, our bet lies with the UNDER.

Rebounding, the toughest of Jokic’s three props to predict, poses a challenge. In the 2022-23 season, he finished with an impressive 11.8 rebounds per game. While he averaged a remarkable 13.8 rebounds in his back-to-back MVP seasons, his first six NBA seasons saw him secure 10.8 RPG or fewer.

His extraordinary Finals performance, where he averaged 12.4, 13.2, 14.5, and 14.0 rebounds per game across different series, certainly justifies SuperDraft’s expectation of 12 boards per game. Nonetheless, placing a bet on a player like Jokic, who shoulders substantial offensive responsibilities, to maintain a 12-rebound average over an entire season might be a risky venture.

Last season’s rebounding leader, Domantas Sabonis, averaged 12.3 rebounds per game but fell short of 20 points per game. Furthermore, his surrounding rotation lacked strong rebounders. In contrast, Jokic benefits from the presence of formidable rebounders like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. Given these considerations, we don’t anticipate Joker needing to secure a dozen rebounds every game. Our recommendation leans towards the UNDER, or considering avoiding this bet altogether.

We’re leaning towards the OVER on this one. Jokic has evolved into one of the premier playmakers in the league in recent years, and the players surrounding him have grown into confident scorers. This bodes exceptionally well for the two-time MVP, as his inclination leans towards facilitating rather than taking on the bulk of the scoring load. Much like we’ve witnessed with LeBron James in his later years, dishing out 10-15 assists tends to be less physically demanding than scoring 30-40 points.

Our projections suggest Jamal Murray is poised to earn his inaugural All-Star selection this season, and we anticipate Michael Porter Jr. making strides in his offensive game. With Murray, MPJ, and even Christian Braun capable of contributing as secondary and tertiary scorers, Aaron Gordon posing a high-percentage threat near the rim, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope along with the recently-acquired Justin Holiday providing strong floor-spacing options, the Nuggets have positioned Jokic for another fruitful season in terms of assists.

Reference

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